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Here's the deal: Apple's halo effect has gone and investors are not impressed by Apple's earnings guidance. This quarter's earnings is proceeding exactly as I indicated it would earlier today.

There's a lot of angst surrounding Apple's earnings announcement because of the stock's sell-off. While I have turned bearish on Apple, I still believe the numbers for the quarter will be good. The question for me is guidance.

This is an update to today's weekly on Ireland and Portugal. Olli Rehn, the European Economics Commissioner has just confirmed my months' long forecast on how the Irish and Portuguese bailouts would proceed: with an OMT-style exit…

Last October, I highlighted the issue of bailout extensions to Ireland and Portugal and so I want to re-visit this theme now that Portugal and Ireland are in the news looking to change the terms of their existing bailouts.

Although the House GOP leadership has been divided on how to deal with the upcoming fiscal contests, they have apparently decided to raise the debt ceiling and focus on the sequester as I have predicted.

While Germany's numbers for Q4 2012 were poor, showing a contraction of 0.5%, I noted in my last post on Germany that this does not mean recession. The contraction was due to export and capital investment figures, which look to rebound in…

In the past year, I have increasingly turned away from the US housing market to stress the difficulties now besetting other global housing markets because there have been large house price appreciations (and some declines) elsewhere in…

The key to Spain's turning the corner as 2013 begins is the housing market. This takes on increasing importance given the reprieve in crisis interest rates. House prices are still falling and the economy is contracting despite the…

German GDP contracted by an unexpectedly large 0.5% in Q4 2012, according to preliminary estimates of the German government. The contraction is largely due to receding trade volume and does not necessarily mean Germany is in recession…

Last Tuesday I said then that the debt ceiling fight would come first but that default on US public debt would be a step too far - and so Republicans would capitulate, forcing them to put their efforts into the sequester cuts. The biggest…