Markets

Here’s a great chart just released by the International Monetary Fund for Greece, Portugal, and Ireland as well as Japan, the US and the UK. Note that almost half of the US federal government debt is held by the Federal Reserve and the…

At the beginning of the year, the 60-day correlation between Irish and Greek 10-year yields was above 0.90. Today, the correlation stands at -0.42. At the same time, Irish 10-year bonds yields have become significantly more correlated with…

Reuters has reported that Bank of China, a dealer in China's foreign exchange market, has stopped doing foreign exchange forwards and swaps with several European banks. Separately, sources say the European banks involved are Societe…

Here’s what I am hearing. At the end, I will tell you how far-fetched I think these things are.

What will the Europeans do here then? I am anticipating bailouts, liquidity injections and capital injections. But this is looking pretty dismal now so it is not clear if that will be enough.

Reader: It’s interesting that the ECB announced these liquidity mechanisms in place for some reason. Either, a Greek default, Italian or Spanish downgrade, or things inside the European banks are a lot worse than anyone is admitting. The…

BRL is one of the worst EM performers today, and continues a string of underperformance (-10.8% vs. USD) that began with the unexpected 50 bp rate cut August 31. Since then, only HUF has done worse at -11.5%. It’s really a confluence of…

European stocks snap a four-day amid Greek default concerns; EUR/USD gapped lower near 1.363. Markets this week are likely to be dominated by political risks in Europe, along with FOMC meeting. In the EM space, central banks from Czech…

The D-Process played out in greater initial force in the US private sector. Now Europe is playing catch-up, but more via the public sector due to the restrictions imposed by the Euro. Ray Dalio comments on how he sees this process proceding…

One defining characteristic of the current market is time compression. What used to take weeks and months now happens in hours, if not seconds. It’s gotta be the robots and algo trading, no? Do you feel a little like the modern day version…