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Markets
BOE and ECB: What It Means and What is Next
The Bank of England, which has a penchant for surprising the market, chose not to wait for the quarterly inflation report to provide cover, and announce GBP75 bln additional bond purchases over the next four months. We forecast sterling to…
Some Thoughts On EM FX Intervention And Vulnerability
Markets have been punishing countries with the weakest fundamentals, focusing on either high inflation, large current account and budget deficits, external debt loads, or a combination of these. These other vulnerability measures in the…
Russian Currency Outlook Negative Due To Falling Oil Prices
This fiscal uncertainty may be enough to prevent any ratings upgrades ahead, but we do not think the situation will worsen enough to lead to downgrades. Our sovereign rating model has Russia as a very solid BBB+/Baa1/BBB+ credit compared to…
More on the S&P bear market and the central bank liquidity train
Just a few moments ago I posted on the fact that the US is officially in bear market territory. On Twitter, I said that “in Fall 2008, 10-year yields went to extreme lows and then the liquidity train went into overdrive. Stocks rallied,…
The US is officially in bear market territory
In early trading today, the S&P 500 has dipped deep into the red, with stocks trading off 2%. The S&P 500 at 1076 is down over 20% since its yearly high as predicted. Next stop for support is 900-950.
Lenders now suing for mortgage debt after foreclosure
The statute of limitations is five years for default. That means banks still have until the beginning of 2012 to sue a strategic defaulter from early 2007.
Chutes and Ladders: Preview of BOE and ECB Meetings
The outcome of the Bank of England meeting will known first. Based on the dovish cast to the Sept BOE minutes and some recent comments, within the context of generally soft economic data, there is speculation that the BOE can resume its…
Greek Haircuts: A Clarification
The media and some pseudo-analysts, and, surprisingly, even some investors, still don’t understand what the 21 percent haircut in the Greece bond restructuring is all about. The 21 percent touted about is simply the hypothetical…
Japan: Yen upside risk on deflation threat
More broadly, the recovery from the March tragedy appears to be running out of steam. Retail sales which surged in the April-June period fell in both July and August and deflation appears to be threatening again. The year-over-year pace of…
Hungary: Controversial Swiss franc loan law goes into effect
Central European borrowers loaded up on cheap Swiss franc and euro loans (mainly from Austria and Switzerland) in the lead up to the credit crisis because of higher nominal rates in central Europe. When the crisis hit, these loans became…