Markets

We could be wrong on this one and may have too much faith in the Eurocrats, but think of consequences if we are wrong? If the EU fails here, it will 1931 all over again and will put the “Great” in this rolling depression/recession.…

Once again, the 200-day moving average proved to be formidable resistance for the S&P500. After trading though the 1264-65 level on the now expected daily afternoon market moving FT article the index couldn’t hold its water and sold…

The “troika” – Italian, Spanish, and French bond yields - is acting pretty well even after the S&P downgrade. Italy is under 6 percent and that is what matters. We sense there will be tremendous pressure on the shorts and equity risk…

"Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today placed its long-term sovereign ratings on 15 members of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone) on CreditWatch with negative implications. "

Looked like today could be the day the S&P500 broke through and closed above its 200-day. That is, before the tape bomb out of the S&P putting most of the ‘Zone countries on negative watch for a credit downgrade. Let’s see how this…

Could this be part of the reason the Shanghai was the only major index we track that was down last week?

If I told you that the composition of an average UK equity fund changes by 90% a year, would that startle you? How would you feel if I added that the 20 funds with the highest turnover returned just 4.7% to investors in the 3 years to the…

European leaders will meet again on December 9th in an attempt to come up with the solution. The important point, though, is that the probable solution would call for European nations to surrender some sovereignty over fiscal policy to a…

The Global Macro Monitor posted several pieces earlier in the year about the Presidential Stock Cycle. The third year of a first term President is the strongest year in the cycle. The table illustrates that if the S&P500 doesn’t close…

It looks like Santa Claus is coming to town. Maybe we get a little consolidation over the next few days and then the next test for the S&P is 1257, the breakeven for the year, 1265.89, the 200-day moving average, and then the October 27…