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Markets
Chart of the day: Spain enters top ten for government default risk
Spain is now ranked ninth for default probability just behind Ireland, with an expected 40% chance of default in the next five years. The Spanish 10-year bond yield has fallen back to 6.70% after reaching a record euro zone high of 6.834%…
German sovereign CDS widening is a troubling sign
The focus recently has all been on the Eurozone periphery, but signs of strained financial conditions are now showing up in German sovereign CDS. The spread has been steadily rising.
Bernanke Disappoints Goldbugs
Though Vice Chairman, Janet Yellen, threw the bugs some QE red meat, Chairman Bernanke disappointed. We were expecting more positive QE speak from Mr. Bernanke, but not surprised by the sell-off.
The US TIPS curve has become inverted
The US inflation indexed treasury curve (TIPS curve) has inverted sharply in the short end. The one-year TIPS yield went from negative 2.5% to zero in a matter of four months. The one-year treasury (nominal) yield on the other hand has held…
Economists are becoming concerned about Canada’s housing market
Canadian home prices have been growing quite rapidly, particularly as compared to the US. Some may argue that this is justified because Canada's unemployment rate is lower. 8.1% in the US vs. 7.4% in Canada. Is that enough to justify such a…
What record low 10-year rates tell us about the toxic effects of permanent zero
On Twitter the latest buzz is about the US ten-year government bond hitting a record low of 1.6713%. Some are amazed that the world of 'financial repression' where long-term yields are lower than consumer price inflation can go on and on…
The Facebook IPO Fallout
In less than a week's time, the Facebook IPO has gone from the most-hyped technology event since Google went public into "blame-storming" mode. Details concerning the stock's sudden drop, the market's inability to process orders, and the…
Europe Data and News Stream Poor
It was not the news stream, which was poor to say the least. The flash European PMI and German IFO warns that even the German economy may be fizzling. UK Q1 GDP was revised down. Yet by the news hit the euro selling appears to exhaust…
On JPM’s Dimon’s still unassailable position and Facebook as the new Yahoo
I spoke to Paul Waldie and Brian Milner of the Globe & Mail on BNN's headline on Monday. The big story was JPMorgan Chase and the London Whale trades. JPMorgan Chase's CEO Jamie Dimon, as the leading lobbyists for the hands-off…
US housing starts up 40% in last year but still half of 50-year average
Housing starts in the US were up today. The Wall Street Journal writes that number came in at 717,000, up from a low of 478,000 in April 2009.