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Las Ciudades Fantasmas

Thanks to Iza Kaminska for pointing me to the video below of row after row of incomplete homes in Spanish host towns, las ciudades fantasmas. Spain has the same problem of overbuilding that the U.S. had during its bubble days. Now that…

Ratings Agencies Continue To Flail

By Win Thin S&P cut Portugal one notch from BBB to BBB-, and comes just five days after it cut the rating from A- to BBB. Did things really materially change over the past five days? It’s time for a reminder of what the agencies are…

Trichet: Seeing What You Want

ECB President Trichet remained hawkish in comments today, noting that inflation is persistently above the target of just below 2%. Yet ECB monetary policy is not base don one pillar but two. The other pillar is money supply. Money supply…

Oil: Where is the spare capacity?

This morning's note from UBS' Andy Lees addresses something about which I am sceptical regarding the escalating Libyan conflict: global spare oil capacity. I am in the same camp with Jeremy Grantham. Call it peak resources, peak oil,…

Stocks are not cheap

If you look at U.S. equity valuations based on value metrics like the Shiller P/E, stocks are rather expensive right now. Because many factors within an individual business cycle are mean-reverting, to the degree one wants to conduct…

The Seven Immutable Laws of Investing

In my previous missive I concluded that investors should stay true to the principles that have always guided (and should always guide) sensible investment, but I left readers hanging as to what I believe those principles might actually be.…

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