Case-Shiller Housing Data Confirm Move Below Post-Bubble Trough
The house price data has been dismal in the last several months. With the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices released today, we have now passed below the post-bubble trough and are hitting new low prices across the country. For data through January 2011, the broad Composite-20 index is down 3.1% compared to January 2010. The Composite-10 index is down 2.0% in that time frame. The mortgage and housing industries continue to be a drag on growth as the market struggles to clear the massive overhang of inventory.
Like Last month, only one market in twenty, Washington D.C., showed a price increase.
The previous months’ analyses are here:
- Case-Shiller: US House Prices Are Closing In On the Post-Bubble Trough Feb 2011
- Case-Shiller numbers confirm housing double dip Jan 2011
- Housing Double Dip in Progress Dec 2010
At this juncture, the trend is clearly down.
The US property market is still around 5 to 20% over valued depending on local markets. The apparent rise in rents recently are not sustainable unless there is a real increase in incomes, which is simply not happening. If you use a ratio of prices to local incomes which is far more sustainable, then many markets will still have some way to fall.
The US property market is still around 5 to 20% over valued depending on local markets. The apparent rise in rents recently are not sustainable unless there is a real increase in incomes, which is simply not happening. If you use a ratio of prices to local incomes which is far more sustainable, then many markets will still have some way to fall.