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Economy
Mosler: I advocate tax relief and jobs, but forecast muddle through at best
Warren Mosler proposes a full FICA suspension, a $150 billion one time distribution to the states and an $8/hr federally funded transition job for anyone willing and able to work. However he believes these proposals will likely not be…
Guess what truth and “truthiness” in the TARP bailout reveal?
Every 60 days the Government Accountability Office issues a report on the various TARP programs. Each report looks at how the Office of Financial Stability, the body currently overseeing all TARP programs, is performing on a given metric.…
Brief Note on Big Surge in US Consumer Credit
Late yesterday the US reported the biggest jump in consumer credit in a decade. It reinforces the signal of the gradual healing of the labor market and the resilience of the US consumer. The report increases the risk that the November…
Mild Corrective Forces Unfold
The light news stream, adequate bill auction receptions and comments from Fitch suggesting France's AAA rating is secure this year encouraged short-term players to take profits. However, sentiment is still wholly euro negative and a large…
The expansionary fiscal contraction bust
If you argue that austerity works in cutting deficits over the longer-term but the short-term pain is worth it, that's a different argument than the one Republicans are making - and one not likely to get one elected, which is why they're…
The Fed’s definition of “clarity” is not like yours or mine
Each member will be asked to give a number for what they think the interest rate will be at the end of this year, the end of next few years and also in the long run. Won’t it be confusing to have 12 different predictions for this?
PBOC Easing To Continue In 2012
With the Chinese New Year holiday period approaching, it becomes a bit harder to discern PBOC’s policy intentions. It typically adds liquidity aggressively ahead of the holidays, but this year it comes at a time when the central bank is…
European Bond Supply and Greece’s Trojan Horse
European sovereigns return to the capital markets more substantially next week as 2012 issuance gets under way. Between bills and bonds, around 35-40 bln euros will be sold. Maturing issues and coupon payments will cover about…
Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)
Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here's a brief version of the list.
Beyond Jobs
The US jobs report is the main economic release today. In recent months, better than expected employment reports have spurred risk on trading and this has been dollar negative. Given the ADP report, despite the December skew in that time…