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Browsing Category
Economy
ECRI Index annualized change almost a lock for double dip territory
The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI), a measure of future U.S. economic growth stands at 120.6 unchanged from a week ago. We first began actively talking about the WLI in April as a predictive indicator for either sustained recovery or a…
Deleveraging Will Continue Apace
From the Consumer Metrics Institute What credit numbers? During the past week there has been a flurry of Federal Reserve reports and commentary concerning the levels of credit in the current economy. The two most notable were: On July…
What I am Going to Think About on Vacation
Things I am Going to Think About On Vacation Like others, I try to clean off my desk before my summer vacation. This year it is particularly difficult because there seems to be several unresolved issues. I will mull them over…
Goldman Fraud Case With SEC Settled
Goldman Sachs (GS) and the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) have announced a settlement of the suit over the Abacus security case which was a civil action charging fraud by Goldman. According to the SEC announcement, which I watched…
Industrial Production Increase Misleading
The 0.1% rise in US industrial output in June seems to defy expectations for the first decline since mid-2009, but the headline is deceiving. Manufacturing, the key component actually fell 0.4%. The headline was flattered by a 2.7% jump in…
Paul McCulley does Modern Monetary Theory
This is just in from PIMCO's Paul McCulley, who seems to have caught on to the Wynne Godley sectoral balances approach to viewing the macro economy (hat tip Scott). He says: Double-entry bookkeeping was a great invention. It is a…
Biting The Fiscal Bullet In Poland
There is a good deal of speculation in the press at the moment over the tricky issue of whether or not Poland will be able to comply with its agreed deficit-reduction deadline on the basis of the latest budget proposals announced by the…
Thoughts on the weak retail sales number
I am on BNN in Canada today at 1215 ET to talk about matters financial. So as a lead-in to what I am going to say there, I wanted to write here about the retail sales numbers, earnings season and the economy. Retail sales were weak. The…
Has the Recession Really Ended?
In a post via John Mauldin, Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt echo some themes CW presented in January regarding why the NBER has waited to declare an end to recession. See "Is the recession dating committee preparing for a double…
Moody’s cuts Portugal credit rating two notches to A+
The credit rating agency Moody's has cut the credit rating of Portugal two notches to A1 from Aa2. While the move is not entirely unexpected, it is having a negative effect on the euro. Expect Marc Chandler to say something about this in…