Daily

The "Trump Unchained" policy tack is gathering steam as Trump lays the groundwork for a post-globalist world.

The big idea in today's daily newsletter is that 2018 is as good as it gets. There is also commentary on the manufacturing sector, yield curve flattening, and bond market liquidity

My first weekly post at Creit Writedowns Pro includes some thoughts on Tesla, Trump's Fed choices, the US trade war with China, M&A and corporate earnings.

1 big thing: Trump lambasts Fed rate hikes In an interview with CNBC, US President Donald Trump said “I’m not thrilled,” with the Fed's monetary policy. He continued by saying, “because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise…

This is Credit Writedowns daily newsletter for 19 Jul 2018. The big issues: the US economy, Fed policy, currencies, trade and government deficits.

The possibility of the Fed causing the curve to invert is real. We will have 12-18 months at most to see what happens economically.

With Europe, when the economy turns down, that’s when the acrimony will be greatest. And that’s when I would worry about really bad outcomes.

Given what I know about the Fed's reaction function, I believe pre-conditions favor Fed tightening irrespective of the slope of the yield curve.

First, the recent post-Facebook scandal market volatility has seen Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google follow Facebook down. Second, Donald Trump is acting more boldly and more aggressively now on his economic agenda, on trade and on foreign…

Lots of links on Facebook. Also see notes on Tesla and GE.