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Daily
The US-Chinese trade war and a slowing global economy
1 Big Thing: Escalating trade war
In today's daily post, I want to put the US - China trade war front and center and ask whether it matters to growth.
The news, of course, is that US President Trump slapped tariffs on $200 billion worth of…
Lines drawn in predictions for a recession by 2020
Increasingly, prognosticators are talking about a recession in the United States by 2020. But not everyone is onboard with those predictions. Moreover, arguments vary both in terms of why a recession would take hold and in what the likely…
Politics driving fiscal space, populists winning in Europe, and the meaning of a crushing euro…
1 Big Thing: Politics are the driving force in fiscal debates
The conventional wisdom is that Donald Trump is irresponsible for running up trillion dollar deficits which will limit fiscal space in the next downturn. In a good piece on how a…
The Internet: cutting out the middleman and creating platforms for regulatory arbitrage
This is today's daily post. It's going to be all about technology. To start, I want to focus in on a theme: the deflationary impact of the Internet. Since I have a lot of ideas here, I may make this into a thematic post later.
1 Big Thing:…
The situation in China as the trade war with the US beckons
On Monday, I mentioned that White House Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow had said on CNBC that the US wants to build a “coalition of the willing” to fight China on trade. And so, the fear in China, I understand, is…
What should we expect after a financial crisis?
Today is September 11th, a sad day for many people including myself. I lived in New York City when the terrorists attacked that day. And I witnessed the Twin Towers fall. A college friend who worked there was killed in the attack. I don't…
Bargain hunting as house prices tumble in Australia, preparing for black swans in China and…
1 - More downside prices for Australia's housing market
The Australian housing market is in the "bargain hunting" mode now. And that could add to downside losses.
If you recall, the FT did a piece on the falling market, citing…
The threats to the American dream
The title of this daily post is a bit dramatic, I know. But that's what I came up with when I thought about some of the themes I intend to write about today. It's on my mind because of the news cycle and what I've been reading.
But some…
How little politics matters to the market and normalizing policy in the US and Europe
1 - How little politics matters to the market
A couple of weeks ago, I tweeted the following after Michael Cohen pleaded guilty:
For those surprised there’s no market reaction to Cohen, why should there be? It has no bearing on earnings,…
How an unchanged financial system and credit stresses will prove problematic in the next year
Happy Tuesday! In the US, the summer holiday season is officially over today. And so, markets here are fully re-engaged. That usually means a reassessment of the economic, political, and investing landscape. And that has sometimes led to…