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Daily
A brokered Democratic convention and the faltering European economy
Two topics today: the US and the EU. Unlike Monday, when it was the politics in the EU and the economy in the US, this time, I want to talk about the politics in the US and the economy in the EU.
German chancellor in waiting quits, Fedspeak comments, Repo thoughts, and economic bullishness
Today is a bit of a potpourri because I have three different unrelated topics to discuss and one review item. But I'll make it (relatively) short. I have the most to say about Germany.
Jobs report confirms health of US economy and gives a boost to Trump
The latest jobs report confirms that, on the eve of the coronavirus outbreak, the US economy was healthy, and that there was little chance of a near-term recession. I would go so far as to say that, even with the coronavirus outbreak, the…
Some thoughts on the radicalization of politics in Germany (and around the globe)
One major headline today that you might have seen concerns politics in the German State of Thuringia. And that’s because German Chancellor Angela has publicly rebuked the leaders of her own party in that state for accepting support from the…
Bullish US and EU data as we wait for the US jobs numbers
There are a lot of bearish views out there, suggesting recession is just around the corner. Frankly, I don’t see it.
More on the coronavirus, tail risk and policy error
it’s now much more clear that the coronavirus is a serious event risk and that financial conditions are tightening very quicky. The Federal Reserve needs to take these signals seriously to prevent worst-case outcomes, that include recession…
Overkill on recession worries
I am looking at the US yield curve as I write this note and I see the 10-year yield is just one-tenth of a basis point above the 3-month yield. And the curve is completely inverted from 6 months to 3 years. Should we be worried? The short…
A framework for thinking about tail risk
I woke up this morning to tweets from the amazing Lisa Abramowicz indicating a sizable move into risk-off territory for global markets on the back of coronavirus concerns. And because I talked about faulty market structure related to one of…
When is individual wealth too large?
In an interview with Ta-Neishi Coates, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tries to answer the recurrent question of 'when is it just too much money?"
Here's the clip. Watch the whole thing because I am going to comment on it.
The AOC position…
BBB fallen angels and fake ETF liquidity
Yesterday and today, there's been a bit of back and forth on Twitter about vulnerabilities in the high yield space. I thought I would weigh in via this newsletter because I think it's an important issue regarding faulty market structure.…