Commentary

Markets have failed to correct 15 or even 10% for a record period of time during this cyclical bull market. Given the stretched valuations, this makes the market vulnerable to a pullback. What are the types of events which could precipitate…

The scenario I laid out for Europe for 2014 in three posts on the global economy last week is one of muddling through. However, whereas in the US, there are upside risks, in Europe the risks are mostly to the downside, politically and…

Most economic analysts are in a bullish frame of mind regarding the outlook for 2014. I believe 2014 will be better than 2013. Nevertheless, there are risks to this optimism, both regarding the real economy and the valuation of shares.…

This is a brief note because I need to alter my view on the Fed’s taper a smidgen. Yesterday, I said tapering is coming and I implied that it is likely to happen next week. I now think December may be too aggressive a move for the Fed.

The latest flow of funds data from the US Federal Reserve show that the great American household deleveraging may be over. This should add a credit accelerator to the US economy which maintains growth. Meanwhile analysts are increasingly…

Today is the day when the much anticipated jobs report was released. And the data were good. The jobs report was not the big news in my view, however, because at the same time we saw the jobs numbers we also got personal income numbers -…

The news flow over the Thanksgiving weekend and starting this week has been positive. I believe the data support continued global recovery, even in Europe where the data have been the weakest as the latest batch of economic data show…

My view since the beginning of the financial crisis has been that policy levers to alleviate this private debt stress are limited, and that this limitation will be felt in defaults, writedowns and deleveraging of a magnitude that is larger…

The global economic recovery continues as all of the most important economies in the world are on track for growth. Europe is the laggard and the tepid recovery there could still stall out. Below are some brief ideas on where this is headed…

The latest quarterly figures for Germany have come out and they show an improving domestic demand trend in Germany. Net trade lowered economic growth because of weak export volume. These results and the institution of a minimum wage will…