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Commentary
Apple’s profit falls in Q4 2013 on record revenue
Apple set another record for revenue in its fourth quarter of 2013 according to its latest earnings. However, margins at Apple have receded such that profit fell for yet another quarter. Overall, Apple’s strategy now seems to be geared…
Austerity is still the prevailing paradigm right across Europe
Despite Europe’s continual moving of the goalposts to give countries more breathing room, the economic paradigm in Europe is still the same: austerity. This will dampen growth in Europe for the foreseeable future and increase government…
On quantitative easing, fiscal policy, and Abenomics
I was just re-reading Richard Werner’s initial quantitative easing scheme for Germany from 1995. What he says is relevant to today’s situation in Europe and the United States as well as for today’s Japan. I want to highlight a few lines…
Another example of the primacy of monetary policy from Canada
People want to see tight fiscal policy and loose monetary policy if stimulus is necessary. That is current policy orthodoxy and it will continue to be the case until at least the next cyclical downturn. If policy makers can ride out this…
On secular bear markets and more on the primacy of monetary policy
Just after I posted today, I ran across two posts from March that I wrote on government and private debt that are related to theme of today's commentary on potential housing bubbles in Germany and Sweden. I am writing here to more tightly…
Potential default on US sovereign debt grows nearer
Summary: According to press accounts, the Senate could vote on a plan to end the government shutdown and avert a default on U.S. government debt as soon as tonight. Nonetheless, we are clearly in the 11th hour and must consider default a…
Some brief thoughts on the eurozone breaking up
Summary: Recently, Niall Ferguson reminded us of the eurozone pessimism of 2011 and 2012 in a recent polemic against Paul Krugman. Without getting into the Krugman-Ferguson war, I want to hone in on this subject because I think it tells us…
On the US government shutdown
It isn't yet clear how long the US government shutdown will last or what impact the shutdown will have. Nor is it clear that the US will escape a debt default down the road. Therefore, at this time all that reigns is uncertainty.
On the economic consequences of the politics in the US, Germany and Europe
The German election and the US debt ceiling crisis are the two political events dominating the economic headlines - and for good reason; these two events could have potentially big consequences on the regional and global economy. In the…
More on the Fed’s haphazard move to forward guidance over QE
Last week in the lead up to the FOMC meeting, I went through why I believed this meeting would mark a shift away from the QE regime. And while the Fed did not taper, indeed we are seeing a greater emphasis on forward guidance as a policy…