Commentary

The so-called new economy is about disintermediation. That’s what it has always been touted as. And I think there’s validity to this. It’s interesting to see how incumbents deal with this disintermediation, especially when they have…

I have been saying for some time now that I believe peak growth in this US business cycle was Q3 2013. Nevertheless, I want to explore the possibility that growth will accelerate from here, something that could keep stock prices and other…

The Greek bond deal that in February I predicted would come to market was deemed a rousing success by the market. Initially Greece had planned a 2 billion euro offering for 5-year money. But there was heavy interest and Greece’s…

It is about time I updated you on how the ten surprises for 2014 are faring. I actually have 14 but I only get credit on the first ten. The second ten are a bonus round. I am defining my surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3…

Yesterday I looked at the Ukraine situation from a decision-tree framing. And my conclusion was that Western influence in Ukraine’s internal politics to aid regime change was a key factor in making the situation in Ukraine and its…

It is about time I did a long-form political economy piece because a lot of what is occurring in emerging markets is of that ilk. The political economy dominates the economics of the issues in a way that makes discussing markets and…

Amazon. It is a highly-valued stock in the equities market – one that many point to as proof of a burgeoning technology stock bubble in the US. But for all the controversy over valuation, it is undeniable that Amazon is a big force in the…

The emerging markets crisis has died down recently and we are resuming a normal bull market. That is bearish for gold. But when the emerging markets crisis heats up again due to the Chinese slowdown, a flight to safety will occur again.…

In the wake of the financial crisis, some US policy makers understood that the economics profession had erred in not taking debt aggregates and financial stability into account when conducting macroprudential regulation and making economic…

As Ukraine prepares to evacuate its military from Crimea, I believe we should look at upside scenarios in Ukraine. Most of my commentary to date has been focused on risk assessment. But the pullout of Ukraine from Crimea is the first major…