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Commentary
More bullish macro data points in Europe
Despite my unease about the secular headwinds of debt, bank balance sheets and wage stagnation, I must admit that many of the recent macro data points globally are pointing to growth. This is true in the US, in Europe, in Japan and in…
Privacy and the ubiquity of embedded technology
Yesterday, Google announced that it would buy privately-held Nest Labs for $3.2 billion. This was Google’s second largest acquisition ever. Nest is a smart thermostat and smoke alarm-maker which promises to give Google a leg up in the fast…
2014 as an inflection point
When I last wrote you I was talking about 2013 as being akin to the mid-cycle tightening year of 1994. In this view, we are well into a business cycle but it is far from over because of cyclical agents could spur the cycle on. But what…
Europe is in a recovery as Spain demonstrates uptrend
When the Eurozone moved toward the backloaded austerity paradigm, last Spring, I started to change my tune on Europe. In June, I wrote that we should watch second derivatives in the Eurozone, because the change in change numbers are a…
Some brief thoughts on Bitcoin
2013 has been a breakout year for Bitcoin, the virtual payment system. I haven’t written anything on it to date but I have been following the market. Here are some ideas on Bitcoin based on what I have seen.
Japan, Abenomics, the consolidated balance sheet and nationalism
With Shinzo Abe’s radical economic policy shift now one year old, now is an appropriate time to look back and assess its effectiveness. I see results principally in asset prices and to a degree on inflation. However, it is not clear that…
Retail sales data in the US mean better growth expectations
The data for the holiday season suggest that that consumer spending in the United States remains robust. Though wage growth has yet to pick up, consumer spending remains robust enough to fuel further economic gains into 2014.
France and the Netherlands moving in opposite directions
Europe’s recovery is still uneven. Recent data in France and the Netherlands show one nation with contracting GDP and the other with expanding GDP. When will the recovery begin in earnest?
On the juxtaposition of positve economic growth and market vulnerability
It was interesting to see the US markets follow through yesterday to the upside after a monster rally in shares when the Fed tapered large scale asset purchases on Wednesday. But rather than seeing strength in this, I see vulnerability…
What will a Fed taper mean?
The big policy and market issue today is Federal Reserve policy. There is widespread interest in today’s FOMC meeting because of the possibility that the Fed could taper the pace of its large scale asset purchase program. But why is there…