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2014 as an inflection point

When I last wrote you I was talking about 2013 as being akin to the mid-cycle tightening year of 1994. In this view, we are well into a business cycle but it is far from over because of cyclical agents could spur the cycle on. But what…

What will a Fed taper mean?

The big policy and market issue today is Federal Reserve policy. There is widespread interest in today’s FOMC meeting because of the possibility that the Fed could taper the pace of its large scale asset purchase program. But why is there…

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