2018

1 - Saudi It looks as if US President Trump is trying to support the narrative that the Khashoggi assassination was a rogue interrogation gone wrong, allowing the Saudi government to escape sanction. But condemnation is so widespread, it's…

1 - Saudi The foreign policy crisis around Saudi Arabia's alleged assassination in Turkey of a dissident US-resident journalist is dominating headlines. As is often true, it's not clear where Trump stands on the issue. And given the…

The narrative that emerged after the nomination battle over Brett Kavanaugh was dominated by claims that the Republican base had been energized by disgust at the so-called liberal mob that protested Kavanaugh's nomination. But I believe…

The end result of yesterday's election in Bavaria is German chancellor Angela Merkel's sister party, the CSU, losing its absolute majority and being forced to govern in a coalition government after the party's worst showing since 1950.…

The iconic department store, Sears, has filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the US bankruptcy code. Retail has changed a lot in recent years. And for Sears specifically, this bankruptcy has been coming for a long time. It was signalled…

Donald Trump may not always say things the way most presidents before him said them. But what does it matter? Here's my answer.

$200 oil was not on any list of probable outcomes I've seen or considered recently. I think it's fair to say that $200 oil - if it were to happen - would be a black swan event. And it would usher in a massive global economic contraction…

On banks, I am in Jamie Dimon's camp, thinking that this expansion has legs. So I see the sell-off as purely technical in nature and not a portent of recession. On politics, the macro view is one where authoritarianism is being touted and…

I have six sections in todays's newsletter: markets, macro, micro, the US, the UK, and China. So there's a lot of news flow, most of it negative unfortunately. The key piece in the mix of all of this is the 4.2% update to the GDPNow…

This is how Fed tightening regimes work We're bracing for another big sell off in equities today. I don't know if you saw my piece yesterday on market groups breaking below 50- and 200-day daily moving averages. I said "I don’t have a view…