November 2018

The bear steepening from late August was a head fake. We went from about 18 basis points between the 2- and the 10-year on August 27th to 34 on October 10th. That's when the equities market threw a tizzy as the ten-year reached the 3.25%…

The impression you get from a recent piece in Politico is that, yes, the Trump economy is in for tough sledding ahead: President Donald Trump, already in a grumpy post-midterm mood, faces a growing list of economic problems that could…

We're getting to the point now where something very bad is going to happen. Someone is losing his shirt in the oil markets right now. And the question is whether that somebody impacts the US oil sector and oil capital expenditures. As I…

In recent months, I have mostly written about short-to-medium term outlooks. Part of that is because making medium-to-long-term predictions is hard. But I just saw three tweets on the political economy of 2018, each making a case for how to…

The big picture: deflation is back There was a global growth slowdown that I flagged late in 2014. And it came to the fore in 2015, derailing the US economy and pushing the Fed's rate hike timetable back. Here we are with another one. I…

Really quickly here: WTI has traded down into bear market territory today. I see it quoted at $61.38. The high was $76.90. Brent is also down to $71.81 from a high of $86.74. That's not official bear market territory yet. But it's coming…

The midterm election is over. So we can go back to worrying about the Fed! I ended yesterday's political economy piece saying: My sense, here, is that a divided Congress means we are in a ride it out period economically. There are no more…

Let me run something by you. I was thinking about the economic implications of the US midterm election this morning when I happened across various accounts about Donald Trump's press conference yesterday. A lot of the focus was on his…

The US midterm elections last night saw the biggest turnout for a midterm in at least half a century because voter enthusiasm was high. But it was high because the United States is very polarized right now about the job performance of…

There isn't a lot of economic news out today, so let me focus today's piece a bit on the economic and social messaging ahead of the US midterm elections. What about the economy? I was in the car just now, listening to the radio, when a…