2015

Europe is growing again and I see this growth phase lasting a while unless something in the Greek negotiation derails it. And while the Greek negotiations are tense I still believe Greece is an outlier that has indeed been isolated, making…

A typical portfolio will almost certainly not deliver the required returns over the next decade. If ‘typical’ means a 60/40 approach, as already mentioned, then 2-4% annualised returns are what can realistically be expected. If ‘typical’…

The US economy’s upswing over the last six years has been predicated on credit like the cycle before it because wage growth has been lacklustre. I want to describe where credit activity has created a lift in consumer spending and in capital…

Two notable events regarding stock and bond markets have occurred in the last twenty-four hours. One is comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that suggest she sees U.S. equity prices as elevated. The second is a wide-spread backup in yields…

My thesis for the global economy right now is that global nominal GDP growth will continue to slow, leading to more policy accommodation, with the outliers converging toward zero. The question mark in this is the Federal Reserve. Generally,…

I don’t think we got any new information from the economy or the Fed yesterday. While the GDP report was below expectations, it was exactly where the Atlanta Fed said it would be. And the Fed has not altered its stance. It is prepared to…

After the meeting in Riga, it is more clear than ever that the gap between Greece and the Eurogroup finance ministers is wide. Default looks likely and so we have to start thinking about what this means for Greece and for Europe. My base…

It seems that there will be no agreement between Greece and its Eurozone partners. Short of cash, the Greek government will have no choice but to suspend payment of its maturing debts. This column looks at what happens next. In brief, it…

There is an element that links the terrible human tragedy in the Mediterranean and the ongoing Greek crisis. It is Europe's over-emphasis on moral hazard.

The point of all this is that models don't have to model everything, and even "wrong" models can be helpful if used in the right way. And narrative has its uses too.