February 2014

By Marc Chandler The Italian 10-year premium over Germany (white line) has generally fallen over the past year as the dollar against the euro (yellow line). Of course, as one would expect the euro is more volatile than the 10-year…

My thesis has been that China was the main driver of volatility in emerging markets and that tapering by the Federal Reserve was merely a proximate trigger. I still believe this to be the case. However, increasingly I am becoming concerned…

News links for 13 Feb 2014

I have been sitting on my ten surprises for this year because not enough ideas had crystallized… until now. I think I will be ready to write the piece next week. Let me go through my thinking somewhat stream of consciously here. As a…

- The big event today is the BOE's Quarterly Inflation Report and the updated economic assessment and forward guidance; sterling is outperforming - Carney indicated that the new forward guidance would look at a broader range of economic…

News links for 12 Feb 2014

2014 is a transition year for the United States because 2013 was the breakout year for growth. In the third and fourth quarters of 2013, US real GDP statistics showed annualized growth of 4.1 and 3.2% respectively. Official statistics also…

News links for 11 Feb 2014

By Marc Chandler The US debt ceiling looms. The House Republicans are still formulating their strategy. Treasury Secretary Lew has said his ability to maneuver will be exhausted by February 27. While this sounds like ample time to avoid a…

Here is the heart of the matter. It is not the motivation to make money that makes people efficient with resources. It is having a single clearly-defined purpose. When objectives are unclear, money is inevitably wasted.