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Monthly Archives
February 2014
No near-term currency regime change in China
Spot USD/CNY closed above the fix today for the first time since September 2012. Other factors are at work in China currently, making it even harder to read the true intentions of Chinese policymakers. All of these developments come against…
Auerback: US base growth is less than 2%
Marshall Auerback was on CNBC yesterday afternoon talking to Kelly Evans and Steve Liesman on Closing Bell. And his read on the US economy is like mine, 1.5-2.0% underlying growth. He thinks the weak Q1 numbers are not just weather-related.…
Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 1
Brazil goes into a recession.
Spanish GDP growth rebounds and outstrips German GDP growth.
Gold rebounds to beyond $1600 an ounce.
US GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 is below 2%.
10-year US Treasury yields fall below 2.25%.
Abenomics ‘fails’…
China’s raw materials bubble bursts
Steel, iron ore futures in China tanked on bloated (all-time high) inventories and apparent lending curbs by Chinese banks.
The long decline of the Great British Pound
The value of the pound in 1945 was too high even for Britain as it was then, let alone now. It is time to put the past behind us, and move on.
Economic crisis in the post-Bretton Woods age
Here are some brief thoughts on the monetary system’s role in repeated economic crisis in the last 40 years.
Risks of Abenomics ‘stalling out’
"Most of the CPI effects of the Bank of Japan’s efforts to depreciate the yen remain confined to a relative price shock to food and energy that crowds out spending power elsewhere in the economy on future second-round effects in the absence…