2013

The “lesson” is over in China. Brazil is in flux and there is some room to be optimistic. Indonesia is finally increasing subsidized fuel prices. The Turkish central bank is stepping up even more. The Czech National Bank is moving closer…

In the last few days the USD/INR exchange rate exceeded the psychologically important level of 60 for the first time in history. Foreign investors are panicking, as capital leaves emerging markets.

I have been fairly sanguine about some of the market turbulence in 2013. From the fiscal cliff to the sequester to the Japan rate rise to the Fed tapering, I haven't seen a trigger for wholesale risk repricing. I want to flag student loans…

Czech voters are deeply dissatisfied and in a highly skeptical mood, since following seven quarters without growth the country’s economy is evidently stuck in the doldrums. The worst part is things look highly unlikely to improve anytime…

News links and commentary for 27 Jun 2013

I have had some personal affairs to attend to and will continue to be occupied over the next several days and won't be able to post often. I will try as best I can to get some posts out but I am not sure I will be able to. Bare with me over…

In the wake of the selloff in stocks and bonds after the Fed laid out its timetable for tapering, markets are looking to see whether they have misread the Fed. Fed Presidents Bullard and Kocherlakota have spoken and both were pretty dovish.…

News links for 25 Jun 2013

Floating emerging markets currencies have been under tremendous pressure over the past month, as active investors move out. Slowing growth, political instability, and weaker demand for natural resources have all contributed to the sharp…

Paul Krugman penned a New York Times Op-Ed, "Et Tu, Bernanke?", referencing the famous Shakespeare quote "Et tu, Brute" which is generally used to signal betrayal from someone unexpected. Krugman meant to say that the Fed has betrayed the…