2013

The chart on gold is not looking very good. And it seems that retail investors have lost interest in the precious metal. Is this a correction within the longer-term gold bull market or is it a new secular bear market for gold? I have some…

The US is now on track to reach only 1.6% real GDP growth for 2013 - in spite of the extraordinary amount of central bank stimulus. The sad part about this weakness is that to some extent it has been self-inflicted. Policy uncertainty,…

News links for 31 Oct 2013

The U.S. Treasury’s semi-annual currency report had surprisingly strong criticism for Germany. The U.S. claims that Germany’s macroeconomic policies are inherently deflationary, creating risk for further crisis. I agree with this criticism…

Newman: "in my own book the explanation starts the cycle with government spending, thus adding to the money supply, and then issuing treasuries for roughly equivalent amount. The bond vigilantes really have it backwards.

It is not US fundamentals, but global fundamentals that will determine the Fed's ability to taper. If the Fed tapers when the global economy is already in the doldrums, as it is at the moment, the recessionary rebound to the US economy…

News links for 30 Oct 2013

At 2PM ET today, the Federal Reserve is releasing the latest FOMC statement. Market players do not expect the Fed to taper its large scale asset purchase program because recent economic data in the US have been weak. Given controversial…

During the government shutdown, the data for a variety of economic reports were halted. Therefore, I looked at alternative, private sector, data to estimate the government reports. One such model used the historical differential between…

News links for 29 Oct 2013