What were big-time pundits saying just as stocks were bottoming in March 2009?
Three years ago, stocks bottomed and have more than doubled since. What were big name pundits saying at the time:
- 10 Mar 2009 – More bullishness from Jeremy Grantham: "Jeremy Grantham, who is chief investment strategist of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co and manages over $85 billion is telling clients to get out of cash…we are in the overshoot phase of the bear market, with most of the decline being sentiment driven. Could we go to 450 on the S&P, yes (I fully expect us to go lower still after a bear market rally). But, in going lower, the market would make more and more value plays apparent." Stocks did not go lower in retrospect.
- 12 Mar 2009 – Warren Buffett on Bloomberg Television: Buffett was bullish
- 12 Mar 2009 – Marc Faber makes bullish comments on Bloomberg: "Marc Faber is a definite bull right now, despite his title as Dr. Doom. In the video below he makes his case for gold miners and for a general equity rally through to the end of April… Markets have tumbled 50% so he believes you will make money in stocks over a ten-year horizon if you start buying here. He sees few scenarios where this is not true. Markets will go higher due to money expansion. “Don’t underestimate the power of printing money.” That is surely the money quote here. Extreme negative sentiment is a contrarian indicator."
- 12 Mar 2009/13 Mar 2009 – Nighttime Video: Jon Stewart lets Jim Cramer have it/Jon Stewart’s indictment of CNBC: This is a takedown of Jim Cramer for being way too bullish. Is it ironic that it went live just as stocks bottomed? Yes. "Jon Stewart has decided to end the comedy and take a much harder and more serious tone on this issue. Today I would like to highlight last night’s Jon Stewart interview with Jim Cramer because it is not funny. It is an indictment of CNBC, of Jim Cramer, and of the entire financial media as a complicit enabler of the most prolific credit bubble in history."
At the depth of the crisis I felt that it would bounce back significantly, but where I was wrong is that it would be unsustainable and would eventually fall back as fundamentals showed that the recovery was unsustainable. The unknown was the willingness of the Fed to bail out the banks and the 1%. With policy of artificially eliminating safe haven returns from bonds driving hot money into high risk stocks, working so far. The only problem is that pensions are being destroyed for those that have not retired yet, and those about to retire now find that they can no longer retire because of Fed policy, that cracks will appear eventually. When and where will be the big question.