Yearly Archives

2011

Downgrades and Defaults

EUR/USD and European stocks recover amid hopes of Greece aid; market shrugs off Italy’s downgrade. BBH Sovereign Credit Rating Model suggests that further downgrades for Italy and Spain are likely.

The European Bank Run

What will the Europeans do here then? I am anticipating bailouts, liquidity injections and capital injections. But this is looking pretty dismal now so it is not clear if that will be enough.

Piling On: S&P’s Italy Downgrade

Reader: It’s interesting that the ECB announced these liquidity mechanisms in place for some reason. Either, a Greek default, Italian or Spanish downgrade, or things inside the European banks are a lot worse than anyone is admitting. The…

Continued Policy Mistakes in Brazil

BRL is one of the worst EM performers today, and continues a string of underperformance (-10.8% vs. USD) that began with the unexpected 50 bp rate cut August 31. Since then, only HUF has done worse at -11.5%. It’s really a confluence of…

The Unusual Case of Euroland

In the next series of blog posts, we will look in more detail at fiscal and monetary operations of a nation with a sovereign currency. Before we do that, let us briefly examine the case of the Euro. Let me say that we will not address the…

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