2011

Another informative chart from the IMF showing the fundamental problem in Europe’s banking system - excessive leverage and dependence on wholesale funding. Add to that overexposure to highly indebted sovereigns with deteriorating credit…

Since the fourth quarter of 1972 (when founded) the most important thing that the BRT does is a survey once a quarter which provides a forward looking view of the economic outlook of BRT's 140 member CEOs. One of the other major changes…

The Bank of England, which has a penchant for surprising the market, chose not to wait for the quarterly inflation report to provide cover, and announce GBP75 bln additional bond purchases over the next four months. We forecast sterling to…

This is an argument in favor of not avoiding recession but of avoiding depression.

Bottom line: I think we are in the technical recovery phase of a double dip recession that is a once in a generation period of balance sheet repair. To me, it’s a depression. Irrespective of what you call this thing we are living through,…

Today’s Yum! Brands’ earnings conference call was dominated by China. Management talked a lot about commodity inflation running around 8 percent and 20% labor inflation, which they do not yet see abating. This doesn’t square with the…

Since I did the numbers for the US, I thought I would do the numbers for Germany too. Below are the bilateral trade figures for Germany in 2010, first ranked by deficit with country and then by surplus with country. Germany has a deficit…

EU proposes 'co-ordinated recapitalisaion' - The Irish Times - Thu, Oct 06, 2011 tags: Europe banks capital…

Turning to foreign sources of capital will only aggravate the problem from which Europe already suffers. Even assuming that developing countries are willing to take on risks that Europeans find prohibitive, their help will not improve…

Sterling plummets as BoE surprises the market with QE announcement; global stocks, oil advance. All eyes turn to Berlin for Trichet’s last meeting in the hopes of a policy announcement. BoE announcement see QE larger and earlier than many…