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Yearly Archives
2011
Consent Needed for Debt Repayments
What people don’t realize is that what happened in Iceland has been used as a test case for what’s happening in Greece and what’s happening in Europe, and maybe what happens in the United States
Is Greece heading off a military coup?
We have learned that the Defense Minister is calling for a wholesale change of military leadership. I see this as an extremely alarming development. And in conjunction with Papandreou’s move to call a referendum, it would make sense to…
It is almost game over for the euro zone
I wrote an article for Room for Debate at the New York Times on the potential for a Greek collapse to end the euro. Here are the parts I would highlight.
The date when it was first obvious that Greece would default: a timeline of the Greek debt crisis
I was going through my archives to figure out when I first started saying Greece would default and it made for interesting reading as a chronology of the sovereign debt crisis. For me, the pivotal post that signalled default was inevitable…
What will the Fed do tomorrow?
The Federal Reserve holds a two day meeting that concludes near midday tomorrow. It will likely be the first meeting in a while where there is not change in the composition or size of the balance sheet and no fresh initiatives, like cutting…
October 2011 Manufacturing ISM misses estimates
ISM’s October 2011 Manufacturing report on Business came in at 50.8, a level just above contraction. Last month was 51.6.
On the CDS market, the Greek referendum and US banks’ selling insurance
There is much truth to the generalization that European banks took on direct exposure to European sovereigns through the bond market, while top banks took exposure through selling insurance, primarily CDS, on the sovereigns. The latest BIS…
Contagion: Sovereign Credit Default Swap Wideners – Guess Who?
This chart from Credit Market Analysis shows the sovereign bonds which had the greatest percentage increase in their default probability over a 5-year horizon.
News Links: Italy, Europe, and Red Brigade terror
Italy, Europe, and Red Brigade terror – Telegraph Blogs
Italy’s labour minister Maurizio Sacconi has just warned that a rushed shake-up of the labour market – as demanded by the EU – risks setting off a fresh cycle of…