Contagion: Sovereign Credit Default Swap Wideners – Guess Who?
This chart from Credit Market Analysis shows the sovereign bonds which had the greatest percentage increase in their default probability over a 5-year horizon. Greece is number one. As I indicated yesterday, I believe the referendum in Greece makes the likelihood of a CDS trigger greater. And this chart seems to indicate that CDS market participants agree.
Beyond Greece, I would focus on numbers above 25% probability on the list, meaning that they have been affected by contagion today and their default probability is high. That would therefore include Italy and Spain as countries to see as most affected. Austria is now firmly above 10% default probability. So I think that bears watching as well.