Ukraine's sovereign CDS spread is approaching the high reached right before the Russian bailout was announced. The currency is nearing the pre-bail-out lows.
US CDS is based on treasuries (linked to a specific security - the co-called "reference obligation"), which according to the official offering document (see offering circular here), do not have a "grace period". Under such circumstances…
The shareholders and subordinated bond holders of SNS Reaal are now fighting an alleged expropriation at the Dutch Council of State. In addition, these stakeholders are contesting the Dutch government's position that shareholders and…
Spain is now ranked ninth for default probability just behind Ireland, with an expected 40% chance of default in the next five years. The Spanish 10-year bond yield has fallen back to 6.70% after reaching a record euro zone high of 6.834%…
The focus recently has all been on the Eurozone periphery, but signs of strained financial conditions are now showing up in German sovereign CDS. The spread has been steadily rising.
The concept of German decoupling from the Eurozone recession may have been wishful thinking. The latest German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has converged with that of the Eurozone as a whole. Manufacturing PMI is a closely…
The LTROs may have helped ease this year's roll-over risk (Spain has met almost 50% of this year's refinancing needs). But they have not substantially altered the market's views of the risks of an eventual restructuring.
The Greek government said PSI went through with a 95.7% participation rate after CACs were activated. Before the CACs, however, that rate was only 85.8%. ISDA’s determinations committee will decide today at 08:00 EST whether a credit event…