2011

by Edward Harrison Brent Crude is still trading above $98 a barrel. And agricultural commodities remain at extremely elevated levels. World food prices are at all-time highs. The worry is inflation in consumer prices that is not matched by…

By Win Thin In its Fiscal Monitor published in November, the IMF makes a crucial point about growth rates and debt dynamics. It points out that the larger the differential for any country between real interest rates (borrowing costs) and…

Actually I hadn't intended to write this post but this week and last week I have seen a few comments on Twitter questioning the government's employment numbers. That made me think it's a good time to review the US Government's seasonal…

Frederick J. Sheehan is the author of Panderer to Power: The Untold Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession  (McGraw-Hill, 2009) and "The Coming Collapse of the Municipal Bond…

This from today's Fed Beige Book survey: Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity continued to expand moderately from November through December. Conditions were said to be improving in the Boston,…

It's high time I laid my cards on the table about 2011. I have hinted around my view in previous posts, promising to spell it out in detail. So, here it is: I am cautiously optimistic on the US and global economy for 2011. Let me explain…

By Michael Pettis This year to everyone’s surprise the PBoC failed to announce 2011’s lending quota. Instead it announced a series of new polices aimed at monitoring the banks. According to an article in Thursday’s People’s Daily: The…

by Annaly Capital Management An interesting recent piece by Reuven Glick and Kevin J. Lansing of the San Francisco Fed looks to explain changes in the savings rate over time. On an aggregate level, the authors point out that the savings…

by Edward Harrison The US post-bubble experience is often compared to the Japanese post-bubble experience. I have written a number of posts on the Japanese experience myself. Here are a number from 2008: A cautionary tale: story from…

by Edward Harrison Back this past September, Hugh Hendry spoke with Bloomberg's Kevin Crowley about investment strategies, financial regulation and the role of hedge funds. Bloomberg has just released the video and I recommend watching.…