2011

Fred Sheehan argues that it is unlikely that Ben Bernanke will raise rates. He says either the market or a successor will do so. He adds that there are several similarities between current trends and those in 1994, a year when many…

By Rick Bookstaber M&A activity is showing signs of life, activity reaching its highest levels since 2007. What more appropriate symbol of the renewal of the economy, of the emerging spring-time of our business cycle, than the merger…

The claims about “unsustainable deficits” gained new urgency this week as S&P warned that it was downgrading US federal government debt from stable to negative (see here for recent debate). This appeared to be a blatantly political…

Developments in EM over the past couple of weeks suggest to us that EM policy-makers are finally starting to “get it” with regards to inflation and a strong currency. This is a welcome, if somewhat tardy shift. In recent months, EM…

The news that Blackstone Group LP (BX), the world's largest private equity firm, is set to invest $1 billion in unconventional oil and gas projects in North America through a joint venture with Alta Resources has cemented a spotlight on…

Dollar ended the week softer with AUD, JPY and SEK the strongest weekly performers in the G10. Fed introduces new level of transparency next Wednesday with regular press briefings. Euro likely to test December 2009 high, around $1.47, on…

You have probably seen the headlines on the natural gas accident in Pennsylvania. Chesapeake Energy, the largest natgas driller reported on Tuesday that one of its wells in Bradford County, Pennsylvania was uncontrollably spilling thousands…

Overall, I would say that the exogenous shocks have added to downside risk. I would expect economic weakness in the second half of 2011. If economic weakness does materialize in the US, I would expect lower long-term interest rates. Many…

The Financial Times is reporting that China is attempting to address its wealth gap through a number of measures, the principal one of which is raising the tax exemption on income. As welcome as such a move is for consumers facing…

"Texas University Buys $1 Billion of Gold Bars" screamed the headlines in a steroid font. Talk of "new eras" and "turning points" for the gold market ran viral among the bugs' blogs. You could almost hear the metaphysical bell ring,…