2011

This chart is for year over year ‘real’ GDP growth. Note the recurring first quarter spikes followed by dips, presumably due to front loading annual state spending and lending.

Do yourself a favor and pick up a copy of The Good Soldiers today. As I can’t know where you stand on these wars, I can’t say whether or not reading the book will change your mind. But I can guarantee you that its on-the-ground perspective…

There’s been a lot of talk since America’s dismal employment situation summary was released on Friday about why Germany has done so well during the global economic recovery. Here’s David Leonhardt of the NY Times: The brief story…

German Finance Minister Schaeuble wrote a letter earlier this week to the ECB, IMF and euro zone finance ministers that appears to be putting the proverbial cat among the pigeons. The latter has been leaked to the press. He seems to be…

If the public sector balance must over time move from around -10 percent to around -3 percent to stabilize the federal debt-to-GDP ratio at tolerable levels, then the private sector balance and the current account balance must move by…

We are in a mid-cycle slowdown not dissimilar to the ones we experienced in 1995 or 2005. I am remarkably sanguine about the ability of policy makers to induce a cyclical recovery via fiscal and monetary stimulus. And, of course things…

Dollar, yen and Swiss franc broadly higher; sentiment deteriorates after Bernanke’s speech. Euro trips ahead of $1.47 amid concerns over Greece’s package and soft German IP. Brazil and Poland both expected to hike by 25bps; Brazil’s…

It just isn't going to work, and it's very interesting that the man who invested this type of what I call a voodoo economic policy -George H.W. Bush, Carnegie Mellon University, 10 April 1980, in reference to Ronald Reagan’s…

ECB intransigence leaves little alternative to breakup. Europe’s payments-surplus nations are waging financial war against the deficit countries. Without a common union based on mutual support within a mixed economy – one capable of…

The BKX Bank Index has broken below support levels. Banks are dead money. What sector could take leadership in the S&P? How about tech?