2011

In my view, a CDS trigger could be a Lehman-style event, yes. Moreover, only a hard restructuring – meaning principal reduction would actually have any meaningful impact on peripheral CDS or interest rates. So, I expect the euro zone…

Unfortunately, the US economy has weakened somewhat and so the speculation about QE3 has gathered apace. Let me say a few words on this topic here.

In this column, Marc Chandler argues that US monetary policy can be a powerful tool, but it has limitations. Some commodity prices have risen and some have fallen since the Federal Reserve signaled QEII. The anticipation of QEII did weigh…

If you have fewer players operating wells, then the supply should be lower. It sounds to me like the rush to buy up natural gas acreage has strained balance sheets in a way that will force up prices down the line.

If the US wants job growth, it will need to reduce private sector debt levels - and that takes time. The government can act a a counterweight to the demand drag but I am very sceptical of claims like Summers’ that doing so would solve a…

I feel the media in India has become quite complacent about the tawdry condition of free speech in India. All too often journalists can be warned off a seamy story by a tiny exercise of power or influence. All too often, the crooks are able…

Point for point, I agree with the commentary from Felix Zulauf in this week’s Barron’s mid-year roundtable discussion. For long-time Credit Writedowns readers, you will recognize almost every one of these points from previous posts. It is…

Tepper says if the market falls a couple hundred points maybe they would reconsider. But the only result now might be more food and energy inflation.

Karl Whelan finds that a recent analysis by Hans-Werner Sinn on an alleged ECB bailout is incorrect. Willem Buiter is now out with a commentary on the same issue corroborating Whelan’s view. Below are the bullet points he highlights in his…

On balance it would then seem that the consensus remains weighed towards no QE3 either because it is not needed or because it does not work in the first place. I think it is very simple in the end though. If sideways movement gives way to a…