I don’t see President Obama getting re-elected with these numbers. Moreover, the President is doing worst in the three areas where he needs it most. Take a look.
Looking at swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Florida, I am not seeing where he makes any gains. It’s a long way until November 2012, but right now it looks bleak for Obama. Does anyone else have a different view?
Really, the original sin was in the hubris of his economic team underestimating the severity of this crisis. As I said in April of 2009:
In my view, Obama faces a situation more akin to the one Herbert Hoover was forced to deal with because the economy is sill bottoming, unemployment is still rising and consumer spending is still falling. On the other hand, Roosevelt had the advantage of coming into office just as recession ended. This is an important difference in terms of political and economic constraints.
When I wrote this piece in 2009, I was saying it goes to mindset and urgency. But now, it’s much more about the economic outlook and policy options. Forget about ‘pivoting’ to jobs when right now the President is going to be forced to focus on deficits. The House Majority Leader Eric Cantor has already said he will broker no stimulus and the deficit panel will be in full swing before long too.
But, let’s not act as if this isn’t just cynical politics. Republicans like Eric Cantor and Mitch McConnell were all too willing to spend under George Bush. And now they are acting like they are paragons of fiscal responsibility. It’s ludicrous.
But the thing is, it works politically because that is the Zeitgeist of the here and now and voters have short memories. There’s zero chance Obama can pivot to jobs… even if he wanted too. Avoiding a double dip by any means necessary is the only way that Barack Obama doesn’t become the new Herbert Hoover.
Source: New Low of 26% Approve of Obama on the Economy – Gallup