New unemployment claims are coming down
The latest number on unemployment claims shows a seasonally-adjusted 502,000 people applied for unemployment insurance last week, bringing the more meaningful 4-week average down to 519,750, the lowest since late November 2008. That is a good thing because it shows the labor market is improving.
Nevertheless, 500,000 initial claims in an environment of reduced hiring is still consistent with the loss of 200,000 jobs monthly. We really need to see this number hit 450-475,000 before non-farm payrolls increase.
|
|
Advance |
|
|
|
Prior1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WEEK ENDING |
Nov. 7 |
Oct. 31 |
Change |
Oct. 24 |
Year |
|
Initial Claims (SA) |
502,000 |
514,000 |
-12,000 |
532,000 |
509,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Initial Claims (NSA) |
529,446 |
482,542 |
+46,904 |
494,394 |
539,787 |
|
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) |
519,750 |
524,250 |
-4,500 |
526,750 |
490,250 |
|
|
Advance |
|
|
|
Prior1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WEEK ENDING |
Oct. 31 |
Oct. 24 |
Change |
Oct. 17 |
Year |
|
Ins. Unemployment (SA) |
5,631,000 |
5,770,000 |
-139,000 |
5,817,000 |
3,933,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ins. Unemployment (NSA) |
4,944,307 |
4,933,444 |
+10,863 |
4,984,950 |
3,460,633 |
|
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) |
5,790,750 |
5,891,500 |
-100,750 |
5,965,750 |
3,830,750 |
Of course, seasonal adjustments are a big factor here going into the holiday season. Actual claims were 529,446, which is up nearly 50,000 from the prior week. The pre-New Year’s seasonal adjustment peak comes in early December (140% adjustment down) followed by another peak in early January (up to 180% downward adjustment). If we see smaller spikes in these weeks (last January hit a peak of 956,791 actual claims), then this could be a harbinger of better to come in Q1.
Source
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – U.S. Department of Labor
Ed,
What about the household survey? It seems to show a consistently higher level of job losses and continuing unemployment than the establishment survey. Do you place any weight on these numbers?
Thanks.
I do. It says that there may be undercounting (small businesses?). I don’t believe for a second we lost the number of jobs in the last three months that the household survey shows. It seems like a lot of it is people’s reporting status changing.
Generally, I look at the unemployment insurance numbers as the best gauge we have. They tell me -200,000 jobs or maybe -300,000 per month is where we are right now.