April 2009

Jim Grant is definitely not in the deflation camp. He believes a robust policy response and enormous expansion in the Fed balance sheet is storing up monster inflationary forces which could take holding a recovery. As a result, he is…

This is another post I originally ran on Naked Capitalism last month. As you know, I have turned more positive about the potential for a cyclical economic recovery. However, I am unchanged regarding much of the sentiment expressed in this…

This is a post I originally posted over at Yves Smith's site, Naked Capitalism, in April 2008. My intent here is not to malign Obama, Roosevelt or Hoover or make facile comparison but to identify important differences between the economic…

The first link should be a reminder of how powerful the downtrend has been. Also, regarding the inventory purge now ongoing, inventories do not even actually have to be rebuilt to get a statistical up-move going forward, they have to be…

I am in London right now and through next Monday, I will also be on European time, so expect posts earlier than usual. Also, I will be in transit for the rest of the day today. So posting will be light or non-existent. I'l be back soon.…

One of my favorite books is "The Power Broker," a book for which Robert Caro won a Pulitzer Prize. It documents the life and times of master builder Robert Moses, who shaped New York City and American and world city planning for decades.…

John Hussman has a nice piece out named "Green Shoots over Thin Ice. (hat tip Scott)" Below is the core of his argument regarding the recent rally in stocks and the free gift to bondholders. I have bolded parts of the original to add…

This contribution comes from Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman, one of my favourite currency strategists. His latest missive highlights the huge amount of debt being issued by sovereigns. It is not just the United States.: Much of…

This April 2009 post is holding up well and still describes my view on the economic situation in the United States. I am much more confident that the cyclical forces I described here are leading to a recovery. The question now has to do…

This is a re-post that I hope serves as a reminder that although we are NOT talking about a liquidity crisis in the financial sector, but rather a solvency crisis, liquidity remains very much a concern. This post, despite being 6 months…