April 2009

Marshall Auerback here with a few thoughts about this economic cycle, external imbalances, fiscal stimulus, and current account deficits. This is not the Great Depression. We are going to have "muddle through" here precisely because we…

Before I provide the links I want to add some clarifying points about previous articles. Regarding the story about Larry Summers, Summers did not dismiss the employee in question. So, the post title is rather misleading. My apologies.…

I am sure you realize by now that I believe Larry Summers is soft on derivatives, soft on regulation and soft on banking executives.  He exemplifies the self-regulatory zeal of the previous boom.  Given his indifference to responsible…

This comes via Angus Robertson over at Research Recap: Fitch Ratings forecasts that Emerging Europe (EE) will suffer its steepest fall in real GDP since the collapse of the Communist planned economic system in the early 1990s, reflecting…

The OCC’s Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities for the Fourth Quarter 2008 is out. And derivatives exposure is way up. U.S. commercial banks now have a massive $200 trillion in derivatives exposure, which is 14x U.S.…

Of course you know I think credit cards are going to produce a tsunami of writedowns, right? Things are looking more and more like that tsunami is right around the corner: Credit card writedowns soared to record levels in February,…

The March 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business is out.  The widely-followed figure of 36.3 for the purchasing manager's index (PMI) shows a manufacturing sector contracting quickly, albeit at a slower pace.  Last month, the PMI was…

This post was an April Fool's joke. We all know this is not going to happen anytime soon.

Lessons from Japan’s failed fiscal stimulus - Vox Eu Obama’s Ersatz Capitalism - Joseph Stiglitz, NY Times hat tip Mark Thoma The Future of Investing: Evolution or Revolution? - Bill Gross NBER: Household and NFP Differences Are…

I don't want to beat a dead horse here, but the Chinese have been making a lot of muscular moves diplomatically. While shifts in balance of power often take decades, it is increasingly apparent that China is making a strategic move in that…