1. Sobers says

    I voted small ‘d’ depression. Certainly from a UK perspective it will be as bad as the 1930 in data terms. UK GDP ‘only’ fell 5% in the early 1930s. Lack of social provision then made the effects worse than would happen now for a similar contraction.

    I think the biggest issue is not the amount the economy contracts at the nadir, but the rate of recovery. Which traditionally after reccessions has been quite rapid. I suspect this time there will be no rapid rebound. No more easy credit to boost consumer spending. Consumers will be scared off borrowing at all. There will be a sea change in outlook. Debt will be socially unacceptable. Living within ones means will be the new black. And that will make the depression/recession seem to drag on forever.

    As a very perceptive friend of mine has said – ‘I see nothing but grey skies ahead. It will be a very negative, gloomy time for all’

Comments are closed.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More