US jobless claims down on seasonal adjustments

Unemployment claims declined this week to 529,000 from a reading of 542,000 last week. These are very high numbers — the highest figures in this business cycle.  Despite the drop, all of the changes were related to seasonal factors as the unadjusted number was a massive 606,877.

The same was true again with continuing claims as the seasonally-adjusted number fell below 4 million to 3.962 million.  However, the real claims number rose 226k in a single week to 3.748 million. Based on the last few weeks’ data, one should expect 7.0% unemployment at a minimum by January.

I like to look at the year-over-year comparisons to see how the data is trending. These comparisons have now risen to 182,000, a business cycle high. Continuing claims show an equally grim picture with 1,324,250 more people on the unemployment roles than there were at this time last year.

For the life of me, I don’t know why employers think it’s justifiable to fire so many people right before the Holidays.  But, this seems to be what is happening.

Source
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – U.S. Department of Labor