ISM Manufacturing Index plummets
If you were not convinced about the severity of the present recession in the United States before, then the ISM Manufacturing index data for October will serve as a wake-up call. The index plunged to the deep recessionary level of 38.9 where 50 is seen as the level separating expansion from recession. Just two months ago, the index was at 50, where it has hovered since September 2007. However, since July the situation for manufacturing in the United States has deteriorated rapidly.
The index now stands at its lowest level in 26 years.
Now, what you will notice from the chart below is the massive move to the downside in prices and in exports. These two data points indicate that the economy has gone from having to worry about inflation to having to worry about deflation. Moreover, the export data means that a stronger dollar and slowing growth abroad is going to have very negative effects on U.S> growth.
Last month, I indicated that production was a key statistic for judging the strength of an economy.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of business cycles in the U.S. If you want to know when a recession occurs, it is the NBER which decides. The NBER relies on understanding four major economic data trends — the economy’s four horsemen:
- How much we spend: retail sales
- How much we earn: real earnings growth
- How much we make: industrial production
- How much we work: employment
When one looks at a composite view of what this data is telling us about the economy, production is signaling severe economic weakness. However, retail sales is signaling a similar plunge as personal consumption expenditures released last week with the GDP data showed consumers are now spending 3 percent less. On the other hand, real earnings growth is mixed, as are the employment data.
The sequence of events generally moves from a reduction in earnings (or, in this case, wealth), followed by a reduction of consumer spending, followed by a cut in production, and only then, followed by a reduction in employment.
What the data suggest is that we are in the beginning stages of a deep recession where much of the effects on employment have yet to be felt. Unfortunately, this means the economy will fall significantly from here.
Update: I forgot to add my chart of the historical numbers.
October 2008 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® – ISM