May 2008

Oil hit $126 a barrel today on production fears. Refiners and firms that need oil to make money seem to be hoarding it as the price rises inexorably higher. According to Bloomberg, "U.S. crude supplies rose 5.65 million barrels to 325.6…

A Bloomberg article today highlight's the Commercial real estate sector (CRE) as the next leg down in the U.S. property bubble. The article states:With 312,000 private-sector jobs lost in the last four months, foreclosure rates more than…

That's the title of a UK Telegraph article on a report showing that UK repossession orders have increased to levels not seen since the housing bust of the early 1990s. According to this morning's BBC 5 Live program, "Wake Up To Money," the…

Updated throughout the dayMarketsTop UBS banker detained in US - The Guardian (05/07/2008)Bernanke Wants Fed to Pay Interest on Bank Reserves - Bloomberg (05/07/2008)USU.S. Economy: Worker Productivity Increases More Than Forecast -…

Despite stock markets being lower the last few days, there are some bright spots in he macro picture. On Feb 24th, I mentioned that risk in the markets was high as suggested by the Ted spread. (The TED spread measures the gap between the…

Spain is perhaps the next domino in the global credit bubble to fall. The UK economy is slowing as well, but the pace of slowing in Spain is truly remarkable.According to Spanish-language news reports I have seen today (see Round-up),…

Today, Fannie released horrible quarterly financial results. The company lost $2.2 billion and is now looking to shore up its capital base. Fannie said an estimate of its fair value of net assets was $12.2bn at the end of the first…

Updated throughout the dayMarketsMajor Asset Class 1,3,5,10 and 15 Year Returns - Safe Haven (05/06/2008)Why We Must Fix It - John Mauldin, Safe Haven (05/06/2008)Goldman's Murti Says Oil `Likely' to Reach $150-$200 - Bloomberg…

As with the GDP numbers last week, the employment numbers were very dubious indeed. The headline number was still a loss of 20,000 jobs. However, the detail point to likely revisions much beyond that number when more exact data have been…

This weekend I received a disturbing newsletter from John Mauldin, provacatively entitled " Lies and Other Statistics," that dissected the GDP numbers where the headline number was +0.6%. Digging into the detail reveals a completely…