Chart of the day: Job level relative to prior peak
Since the recession in 1990-91, the recovery of employment in the US has had a U-shape that is nothing like the previous post-World War II employment recoveries. This one will be the worst.
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Browsing Tag
Unemployment
On How The US Job Market Is Shifting
Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) explains his view to Anthony Mason of CBS that the problem in the US jobs market is not jut cyclical in nature.
Employment Faces Grim Decade
The U.S. labor market will not return to full employment (defined as a 5% unemployment rate) by following a "business as usual" course. In conjunction with reforms to the U.S. education system to ensure that the workforce has the needed…
On why Bill Gross supports a job guarantee despite railing against the deficit
Politically, the whole thing looks a lot like Japan. To my mind, the right approach then is to de-emphasize “increasing... borrowing and lending” and re-emphasize increasing jobs and employment. Whether we see work sharing as we see in the…
Can Obama cut the deficit and have job growth too?
Stephanie Kelton demonstrates that as long as unemployment remains high, the deficit will remain high. Here’s the formula: Spending creates income. Income creates sales. Sales create jobs. If you think you can cut the deficit without…
Philly Fed survey shows collapse in activity
This is in line with the weak data we have seen out of the US in recent weeks. I expect Q2 growth estimates to continue to decline as the data come in.
The jobs crisis is not just about demand
If the US wants job growth, it will need to reduce private sector debt levels - and that takes time. The government can act a a counterweight to the demand drag but I am very sceptical of claims like Summers’ that doing so would solve a…
Gundlach: “It’s very difficult to move forward with a debt-based economic scheme”
Jeffrey Gundlach spoke with Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider in an exclusive interview which they recently carried on their site. Gundlach believes that the economy is “a low-performance mode” that makes the unemployment overhang…
Why is Germany doing so well?
There’s been a lot of talk since America’s dismal employment situation summary was released on Friday about why Germany has done so well during the global economic recovery.
Here’s David Leonhardt of the NY Times:
The brief story…
Playing Old Maid
The BLS invented 206,000 jobs. The Bureau has constructed an equation called the "Net Birth/Death Model." Its purpose is to count "Business births." That is, new jobs in new businesses net the number of lost jobs in "Business deaths":…