Unemployment

By Marc Chandler This post first appeared on Marc to Market The US jobs data was stronger than expected and yet the impact on the dollar is modest.  The market is as confident of a hike at the June 13 FOMC meeting as it gets about…

As good as the headline unemployment rate appears to be, we should worry that wage growth for the majority of Americans remains weak. The Federal Reserve, acting on the headline rate, will likely make a significant policy error and raise…

Job growth has now begun a slight re-acceleration. If this trend holds, the unemployment rate will drop into the mid 3% range and the Fed will move to a fourth rate hike. The mix of continued job growth, tightening monetary policy, and late…

Lingering concerns about long-term unemployment notwithstanding, inflation has taken center stage. The most recent jobs report, while weak, does little to diminish the Fed's view that rates need to move higher.

The US Department of Labor released poor data for jobless claims this week. The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped to 242,000. This is the last piece of data to come out before the jobs report.

We are not at full employment. Don't give up on the people who have dropped out of the labor force. There are jobs waiting for them, if we allow this thing to run.

In my view, the US economy is not red-hot. I don't fear overheating. But I believe the Fed does. And it will act accordingly.The regime shift is happening now. We'll just have to see how the economy responds.

Productivity is an important yardstick for measuring the value of goods and services workers. A recent study by McKinsey demonstrates that wages and demand are key to raising it.

Hallmarks of recession are all around about the time they happen if one looks close enough — certainly in 2008. I don’t think we are in a recession by any stretch, right now — not even close.

Reuters has done a state-by-state analysis of wage data in the US, showing average pay rising over 3% in more than half of US states. This puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.