Unemployment

When defaults begin to rise and the economy begins to slow, we will find out whether deficits really drive rates higher or cause inflation to rise and remain high.

We’re looking at about 1% in real terms. In the 2000s, we saw real earnings growth rise to 2% and in the late 1990s, it was even 3%.

Non-farm payrolls were up 200,000 versus 180,000 expected and average hourly earnings were up 2.9% on the year

Initial claims for unemployment insurance of 220,000 in the week ending January 13 underscore the strength of the US job market. With the 4-week moving average decreasing to 244,500, there is no sign on the horizon of disruption to jobs.

Walmarts plan to raise the minimum pay for some employees to $11 an hour is big news. I also think this is good news for Trump and the Republicans as well as for wage rates in the US.

While the month-to-month numbers were ordinary, the trend for the past few months is down.

When you look at what the US has gone through over the last decade, in terms of the job market, what stands out is the total decimation of jobs during the Great Financial Crisis. But something else stands out too — and that’s demographics.

You don’t get the same level of job growth after eight years of an economic upturn as you do after one. And this is borne out by the statistics.

The US Labor Department released a very ho-hum jobs report this morning, showing the unemployment rate in line with expectations at 4.1%, but with the economy only adding 148,000, below the 190,000 expected. Overall, the report provided no…

The Wall Street Journal has a piece out about wage rates in the tightest urban markets like Minneapolis. And what they found is that wages rates in these markets is beginning to rise. That doesn't mean inflation will rise. However, it does…