sovereign debt crisis

Nothing in Spain is exactly as it appears to be, and that few of the arguments politicians and so called “experts” advance are entirely innocent. Most “information” circulating in Spain is highly politicised. Really “independent” analysts…

The euro extended yesterday's losses in Asia, falling to $1.2866, the lowest level since the start of the year. The euro's losses against the yen were also extended with new 10-year lows recorded just above JPY100.30. Italy wrapped up a…

The S&P 500 volatility index - the VIX - is a measurement of volatility expectations. It has fallen 50% since the (latest) agreement to save the euro was announced. If the VIX falls to 18, call options are worth considering.

In January, I wrote my prognosis for 2011. The title was "Cautiously Optimistic Into 2011". I intend to write another post like this early in 2012 with asset allocation and market calls for the new newsletter. But right now I just want to…

Yet another rescue plan for the EMU is making its way through central Europe—with the ECB acting as lender of last resort to Euro-banks. It is trying the tried-and-failed Fed method of rescue. As we now know the Fed lent and spent over $29…

The bottom line is that Italy is both too big to fail and too big to be bailed out, which is why it is still hanging dangerously in limbo-land. Since, as I argue in this article, some sort of restructuring or other is well nigh inevitable…

News links for 22 December 2011 including stories on the tech world, Europe, and the ECB

Who says the ECB can't keep up with the Fed. As the euro crisis has caused liquidity for euro zone banks to dry up, the ECB has taken on the intermediation role. In essence, they have taken on the dollar liquidity function that the US money…

The end of year is usually a good time for markets. There was a lot of angst about the European situation a few weeks ago, but there is less of that now because we're hitting year-end (tape painting). Does that mean the credit crisis…

The key question remains what the banks will do with the newly acquired funds. We suspect that to the extent banks buy sovereign bonds, they will purchase their own sovereign's bonds rather than their neighbor's. More details of the nuances…