protectionism

Yesterday, the overarching message of my post was this bit: "as we think of potential outcomes, policy error has to be a real concern here, especially in 2020 once the cumulative impact of all this takes its full measure." I don't think the…

The latest jobs report out of the US was relatively poor. While the comprehensive U-6 unemployment rate went down to the lowest since 2000, other data points suggested the labor market is topping. And with bond markets already predicting a…

I want to use the news flow to highlight several issues that I am following that should have a major impact on the economy and financial markets in the next year. All of these topics are laden with risks that skew to the downside. And that…

The US is not going to be the engine of global growth here. With Europe, focused on exporting its way to growth and China both slowing and in jeopardy of tariffs, we have the makings of difficult times in 2019.

The trade war between the US and China is now in full bloom. And it's likely to escalate. My view here has been that China is more vulnerable in this bust-up than the US. Even so, I don't expect the Chinese to back down. On the contrary,…

1 Big Thing: Escalating trade war In today's daily post, I want to put the US - China trade war front and center and ask whether it matters to growth. The news, of course, is that US President Trump slapped tariffs on $200 billion worth of…

Today's daily focuses on a single theme of the breakdown of globalization.

Some thoughts on China's options as the trade war with the US escalates to an uncomfortable level

Top stories on the persistence of the US economy, the impact of tariffs and the trade war and crisis in Turkey

There are five big topics in today's daily newsletter: the FOMC meeting, Apple's earnings, stock buybacks, student debt, and the political fight between the Koch brothers and Donald Trump