protectionism

It seems like just a week ago, we were talking about synchronized global growth. Suddenly signs of deceleration are everywhere. And bond markets are feeling it. I don't see the economy falling out of bed though, barring an exogenous shock.…

The big news today is Donald Trump's sacking of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Is the confrontational path that Donald Trump is choosing a precursor to an economic shock? Irrespective, I expect elevated volatility to remain a feature…

People are now talking about a trade war. But How will Trump implement his tariff plan? Who will the targets be? How will they respond? What will the economic and political ramifications be? We simply don't know. There will be great…

The announcement of the US intention to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum on national security grounds has sent ripples through the capital markets.

Regardless of what happens in NAFTA, we are going to see the Trump Administration put its 'America First' trade policy in play. Likely within the month, tariffs are coming.

Donald Trump is a very media-centric public figure. And because the chatter in DC now is of Trump as a legislative failure during his first hundred days in office, Trump needs a win - and Canada is an easy target. Here’s why.

This morning data from the US Commerce Department showed the US trade deficit in January at its highest level since March 2012. The numbers were not unexpected as the $48.5 billion deficit was bang on economist estimates.

This is a follow-up to yesterday’s post about Donald Trump and confirmation bias. But it’s going to be a different beast altogether because here’s where I am going to lay out my thinking about Trump and trade. Let me cut to the chase. I…

My narrative is going to be that Trump is a risk taker. And the conclusion I have drawn is that this risk taking will lead to big surprises — some of them negative, but some positive. Afterwards, rather than give you a bunch of confirming…

The lessons for China, if I am right, are that China should forego the idea of nurturing national champions and should instead encourage brutal domestic competition. Beijing should also eliminate subsidies to production, the most important…