investing

The earnings estimates on the S&P must go down significantly. With the problems in Europe, and then the potential slow-down in China (after building more residential and commercial construction than presently needed) we would have to…

USD continues to surge amid safe haven demand; EUR breaks below 1.35, EM currencies drop 1-2.5%. The Fed delivered “Operation Twist” but bleak economic outlook continues to weigh on sentiment. Czech CB remains put, South African CB expected…

We’ve posted many times on this blog about how the Hang Seng Index is one of our indicators species for global risk appetite. The index usually leads global markets on the downside and turns up before most.

Despite pockets of relative outperformance, EM currencies have fared terribly this month and bring to mind parallels with the great EM sell-off of 2008-2009. While a revisiting of the 2008-2009 lows seems too aggressive right now, we are…

The overall gist of Jim Chanos' comments on Bloomberg yesterday were that China has off-balance sheet contingent liabilities due to its implicit commitment to state-owned enterprises which are kneee-deep in land and property speculation.…

The D-Process played out in greater initial force in the US private sector. Now Europe is playing catch-up, but more via the public sector due to the restrictions imposed by the Euro. Ray Dalio comments on how he sees this process proceding…

One defining characteristic of the current market is time compression. What used to take weeks and months now happens in hours, if not seconds. It’s gotta be the robots and algo trading, no? Do you feel a little like the modern day version…

A quick update to our recent posts on Apple and gold. Apple has broken out of its bullish pennant formation and looks poised to take out the July 26th all time high of $404.50. This is a chip shot from current levels and could happen…

We continue to be amazed at the eagerness of the market to rally in the face of negative fundamental data. The U.S. stock market rallied today on the news that the European Central Bank is getting together with other Central Banks (Bank of…

One theme that has captured the imagination of many investors has been the debasement of paper money and the dramatic rise in gold prices. Gold has risen 27.6% in dollar terms thus far this year (24% in euro terms, which reflects 3% euro…