investing

Economic policy has become more important than ever in the investment world. And the degree of policy uncertainty only increases as bailout and deficit fatigue battle it out with liquidity uber alles and financial repression as the policy…

So, our friends, a few questions. Which rates are the result of financial repression, capital flows, and/or stellar credit risk? And what is the best carry trade, assuming you can borrow close to the sovereign?

This extra $4.5 trillion of household mortgage debt is a terrible burden on the economy since consumers make up over 70% of our economy. This is why consumer spending has been so tepid over the past few years. U.S. consumers spent well…

Here is a chart of the relative performance of various asset classes over the past year. One asset class outperforms the others… by a wide margin.

Morning dominated by SNB’s decision to target EUR/CHF at 1.20; European stocks marginally higher. German August orders slumped -2.8%, first drop since March; US service-sector ISM key report today. In the EM space, China's economic growth…

US dollar broadly firmer vs. majors as global growth concerns, euro zone tensions pick up. Merkel's CDU lost weekend election in her home state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Risk assets under pressure, Swiss franc still outperforming;…

Globally, coincident data is already slowing visibly across the globe with headline PMI readings and trade data coming in steadily lower. In that sense we are up against the wall again only so shortly after the shock of 2008/09 and this…

Dollar is mostly firmer against the majors as recent risk rally stalls; US NFP is major focus today. Euro zone jitters pick up after troika suspends Greek talks temporarily; Italy also back in focus. EM sentiment remains poor after Brazil…

Our post of August 22nd, S&P500 Faces a Fork in the Road, noted the S&P500 faced a fork in the road. One path, the 2010 bullish trajectory bolstered by Jackson Hole; the other, the bearish 2008 trajectory, the result of, say, a…

If real returns remain low, it will skew capital investment. When recession hits, debtors backing those losing investments will be caught out and forced to delever aggressively as resource misallocation becomes evident.