investing

Both the equity and the credit markets are betting on US housing recovery.

Frederick J. Sheehan is the author of (McGraw-Hill, 2009) and "The Coming Collapse of the Municipal Bond Market" (Aucontrarian.com, 2009) The July 25, 2012, tribute to Barton Biggs received a large response. Biggs was obviously…

I want to tie a few threads together regarding the synchronised global slowdown and the related drop in corporate earnings. US firms had been insulated on earnings due to not increasing staff and the global nature of their profiles. With…

My thesis at the start of the year was that European equities would outperform despite the sovereign debt crisis because of relative value vis-a-vis the United States. It seems that Jeremy Grantham and Marc Faber agree with those sentiments…

Two years ago I developed a thesis about the negative effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies on bank balance sheets based on my understanding about the history of zero rates in Japan. For bank bond investors, this should be…

We are staring into a cyclical downturn in the second half of this year. Behind that is a whole other set of challenges, more structural in nature, which will take years to sort out. Our American friends - except for a small but rather…

Earlier in the year, I predicted that corporate profitability would fall as US corporate profit margins were cyclically high. The New York Times is reporting that corporate profits fell in Q1 2012 for the first time since the fourth quarter…

The US pension bailout fund PBGC is already stretched and may require more taxpayer money. Now it would be taking over pensions that will be even more underfunded, with asset values way below the present value of the liabilities. And more…

Many of Spain's largest companies are well-diversified, from Telefonica to Repsol to even banking giants like BBVA and Santander. In my view, these are quality companies negatively impacted by the headlines on Spain. For value investors…

This week's newsletter is going to focus on how risk assets are setup given the continuing global growth slowdown and likely policy responses to it. The overall thesis is that shares and high yield bonds in the US are short-term oversold…